As energy prices across Texas continue to rise and market volatility becomes the norm, many homeowners and business owners are asking the same question:
Should I choose a fixed-rate or variable-rate electricity plan?
With summer 2025 forward prices projected at over $130 per megawatt-hour (MWh)—more than double pre-2020 averages—the choice you make today could have a big impact on your future electricity bills.
Let’s break down the two most common plan types and help you decide what’s right for your situation.
Fixed-Rate Electricity Plans: Stability in a Stormy Market
A fixed-rate plan locks in your electricity rate for the entire length of your contract—typically 12, 24, or 36 months. That means no matter how wild the market gets, your rate won’t change.
Benefits:
- Price Protection: Shield yourself from market spikes like those seen during Winter Storm Uri or this summer’s forecasted highs.
- Budget Certainty: Your monthly electricity rate stays the same, helping you plan expenses with confidence.
- Peace of Mind: No surprises. You’re insulated from supply chain issues, demand spikes, and geopolitical events that influence pricing.
Drawbacks:
- It may be slightly higher than current market rates during low-demand periods.
- Early cancellation fees may apply if you break the contract.
Variable-Rate Electricity Plans: Flexibility with Risk
A variable-rate plan changes monthly based on wholesale energy prices and market conditions. In some rare instances, this could mean lower costs—but it usually means more volatility.
Benefits:
- Short-term flexibility—no long contracts or early termination fees.
- Might be cheaper during low-demand months, like spring or fall.
Drawbacks:
- Exposed to market volatility—your rate can increase dramatically overnight.
- Budgeting is harder—you won’t know what to expect month to month.
- Most people end up paying more over time compared to fixed-rate customers.
What Do the 2025 ERCOT Market Numbers Tell Us?
The latest ERCOT data shows:
- Summer 2025 wholesale prices forecasted at $133.31/MWh
- Summer 2026 around $119.30/MWh, with continued pressure expected from high-demand industries like AI, crypto, and manufacturing
- No clear downward trend—only brief dips due to weather or temporary capacity surges
In short: the risk of rates going up is much greater than the reward of waiting for a possible drop.
Which Plan Is Best for You?
| Goal | Best Plan Type |
| Want to avoid price hikes | Fixed-rate |
| Need budget certainty | Fixed-rate |
| Prefer short-term flexibility | Variable-rate |
| Okay with price fluctuations | Variable-rate (with caution) |
The Bottom Line: Fixed-Rate = Protection in 2025
In this market, locking in a fixed rate is the safest and smartest move for most Texans—especially with prices rising and demand only expected to increase. The earlier you act, the better your chances of securing a competitive rate before the next market surge.
Ready to Lock in Your Rate?
Amerigy Energy makes it easy.
Call Bryan Compton, our residential energy expert, at 877-631-8875 or 936-465-2821,
or Shop rates now at amerigyenergy.com/shopnow
Let us help you find the plan that works best for your home or business—before prices rise again.