ERCOT’s load forecast may be overstated — but even the conservative numbers reshape the market for every business in the state.
In April 2026, ERCOT filed a preliminary long-term load forecast that landed like a thunderclap. The grid operator projected peak demand could reach 367,790 megawatts by 2032 — more than four times the all-time record of 85,508 MW set in August 2023. Of that growth, more than 228,000 MW was attributed to data centers alone.
ERCOT’s own leadership immediately cautioned that the number is likely overstated. CEO Pablo Vegas said publicly that the forecast was higher than expected future load growth, and the agency committed to issuing a revised estimate. Even the more conservative working range — somewhere between 90,500 and 98,000 megawatts of peak demand for summer 2026 alone — would still set new records.
Whether the right number is 367,000 MW or 200,000 MW or 150,000 MW by the early 2030s, the direction is unmistakable. Texas is being chosen, on a massive scale, as the place where America builds AI infrastructure. That has profound implications for every business already on the grid.
Why Texas?
Data center developers are choosing ERCOT for a specific set of reasons: relatively fast interconnection compared to other regions, abundant land, no state income tax, a deregulated retail market that allows large customers to negotiate directly with suppliers, and — critically — available natural gas and rapidly expanding renewable resources to power them.
Oncor alone reported more than 109,000 megawatts of large-load projects anticipated by 2032 in its service territory. AEP reported more than 42,000 megawatts. Across all transmission and distribution providers, the submitted total was nearly 243,000 megawatts of large loads — more than 228,000 of which were data centers.
The Three Constraints That Will Decide What Actually Gets Built
1. Generation
It is one thing to interconnect a data center. It is another to actually power it. ERCOT’s resource adequacy outlook for summer 2026 already projects negative planning reserve margins in the net peak load hour. New gas plants take years to permit and build. Solar, wind, and battery storage are coming online quickly, but they don’t perfectly match a data center’s flat 24/7 load profile.
2. Transmission
Texas is actively studying the introduction of 765 kV transmission infrastructure to move power efficiently between generation regions and the new load centers. That’s a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar buildout. Until that infrastructure is in place, congestion on existing lines will continue to drive locational price differences and constrain how much new load specific regions can absorb.
3. Senate Bill 6 and the regulatory framework
Senate Bill 6, passed in the 2025 legislative session, gave the PUC and ERCOT new tools to regulate large electricity consumers — specifically to identify, verify, and incorporate large-load demand into long-term planning, and to allow curtailment of certain large loads during emergencies. We’ll dig into SB 6 in detail in Week 7, but the short version is: the era of data centers showing up unannounced is ending.
What It Means for Your Business
Three practical implications for commercial and industrial customers already on the grid:
- Forward energy prices are moving up. Wholesale forward curves have stiffened as the market prices in tighter reserves and higher demand. Customers locking in 24-, 36-, or 60-month contracts today are paying noticeably more than they would have two years ago, but likely less than they will pay two years from now.
- Demand response and curtailment programs are becoming more valuable. If your facility can shed load during a handful of peak hours per year, the credits available are growing. Some businesses are turning what was a cost center into a revenue line.
- Contract structure matters more than the headline rate. A fixed-price quote that excludes ancillaries, transmission cost adjustments, or capacity passes can look great on day one and get expensive fast. The fine print is where the next decade of risk lives.
The data center build-out is not a future event — it is happening now, in the prices already showing up on forward curves. Businesses that plan their 2027 and 2028 procurement around 2024 assumptions will be caught off guard.
Take the Next Step
Concerned about how the load growth wave will affect your future electricity costs? Amerigy Energy can model your facility’s exposure across multiple price scenarios and contract structures. Schedule a strategy session to review your options.